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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."