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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.