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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.